Population impact of strategies for identifying groups at high risk of type 2 diabetes.
Preventive medicine 2005 ; 42: 364-8.
Harding AH, Griffin SJ, Wareham NJ
DOI : 10.1016/j.ypmed.2006.01.013
PubMed ID : 16504278
URL : https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0091743506000430
To assess the incidence of diabetes among sub-groups of the population defined by the presence of one or more simple risk factors, and to investigate population stratification as a means of identifying groups at high risk of diabetes.
Data from EPIC-Norfolk (1993-1998), a population-based cohort study of 24,714 men and women aged 40-78 years without self-reported diabetes at baseline, were analyzed. During 12 years of follow-up, 608 new cases of diabetes were recorded.
Age (RR 1.03; 95% CI 1.02, 1.04), parental history of diabetes (RR 2.15; 95% CI 1.80, 2.57), BMI (RR 1.76; 95% CI 1.53, 2.02) and physical activity (RR 0.72-0.77 (reference sedentary)) were independently related to risk of diabetes. Sedentary, obese individuals aged over 55 years, with a parental history of diabetes were 18 times more likely to develop diabetes than those in the lowest risk group.
Sedentary, obese men and women over 55 years with a parental history of diabetes form a readily identifiable group, which could be targeted for screening and primary prevention. Groups such as that defined by physical inactivity alone would be more suitable for population level approaches.