Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality.
JAMA 2015 ; 314: 52-60.
Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, Di Angelantonio E, Kaptoge S, Wormser D, Willeit P, Butterworth AS, Bansal N, O'Keeffe LM, Gao P, Wood AM, Burgess S, Freitag DF, Pennells L, Peters SA, Hart CL, Håheim LL, Gillum RF, Nordestgaard BG, Psaty BM, Yeap BB, Knuiman MW, Nietert PJ, Kauhanen J, Salonen JT, Kuller LH, Simons LA, van der Schouw YT, Barrett-Connor E, Selmer R, Crespo CJ, Rodriguez B, Verschuren WM, Salomaa V, Svärdsudd K, van der Harst P, Björkelund C, Wilhelmsen L, Wallace RB, Brenner H, Amouyel P, Barr EL, Iso H, Onat A, Trevisan M, D'Agostino RB, Cooper C, Kavousi M, Welin L, Roussel R, Hu FB, Sato S, Davidson KW, Howard BV, Leening MJ, Leening M, Rosengren A, Dörr M, Deeg DJ, Kiechl S, Stehouwer CD, Nissinen A, Giampaoli S, Donfrancesco C, Kromhout D, Price JF, Peters A, Meade TW, Casiglia E, Lawlor DA, Gallacher J, Nagel D, Franco OH, Assmann G, Dagenais GR, Jukema JW, Sundström J, Woodward M, Brunner EJ, Khaw KT, Wareham NJ, Whitsel EA, Njølstad I, Hedblad B, Wassertheil-Smoller S, Engström G, Rosamond WD, Selvin E, Sattar N, Thompson SG, and Danesh J
DOI : 10.1001/jama.2015.7008
PubMed ID : 26151266
PMCID : PMC4664176
The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing.
To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity.
Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates.
A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI).
All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy.
In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy.
Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.